Will you live to 100? The odds may be better than you think
The number of Americans age 100 or older has tripled over the last 30 years, and that growth is expected to accelerate over the next few decades. In fact, the number of centenarians will more than quadruple by 2054, according to a Pew Research analysis of population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Read: Can You Coast Into Retirement With a Less Stressful Job In Your 50s?
Explore: Drinking, Eating and (Not) Sleeping Like A 20-Something? It May Be Time for a Change
This finding demonstrates a long-standing “graying” trend, which surged about 15 years ago. A Census brief from 2020, the most recent Census for which data has been published, reported that the number of Americans ages 65 and older grew faster from 2010 to 2020 than it had during any 10-year period since 1880. Although the 65-to-74 age group experienced the largest growth (51.5%), growth among the 95-and-up group was a close second at 48.6%.
But centenarians aren’t just growing in number. Due to declining birth rates, the percentage of the U.S. population they comprise is also on the rise. In 2024, 108,000, or three people per 10,000, were 100 years old or older; Pew expects that figure to increase to 513,000, or 14 per 10,000, by 2054.
The U.S. is not alone when it comes to an aging population. Japan has the highest population and proportion of centenarians, at 146,000, or 12 people per 10,000. That number could increase by a factor of 1.75 by 2054, which would result in a staggering centenarian population of 40 people per 10,000. China’s centenarian population is expected to grow from 60,000 to 767,000, which is just six out of 10,000 people, by 2054.
So, what are your chances of living to 100? Perhaps better than you realize. In its recent Retirement Income Literacy Study, which surveyed respondents ages 50 to 75, the American College of Financial Services found that over half (55%) of respondents underestimated longevity.
In a blog post about the study on its website, the College provided an analysis of mortality tables from the Social Security Administration and Society of Actuaries that gave the following probabilities that a 62-year-old will be alive at age 100:
Average male: 4.4%
Healthy male: 8%
Average female: 8.7%
Healthy female: 12.7%
Average couple: 12.7%
Healthy couple 19.7%
The probability for any one individual depends on many factors, but generally speaking, the older you are now, the better chance you have of living beyond whatever your life expectancy was at birth.
If, for example, you’re 50, your life expectancy at birth was 71.43 years, according to data from Statista. But the most recent actuarial table from the Social Security Administration estimates that Americans live 32.07 years after they turn 50, which increases your total life expectancy to 82.07 years. Sixty-five-year-olds live an average of 19.95 additional years, for a total average life expectancy of 84.05 years.
Understanding life expectancy is important for several reasons. For one, it helps you plan more realistically for retirement; underestimating how long you might live in retirement can also cause you to underestimate how much savings you’ll need to retire comfortably. And just as importantly, it could guide you to prioritize a healthy lifestyle, which pays off with a longer health span in addition to a longer life.
